Round-By-Round Review, Pats Draft 2017

Hey there, Patriots fans. Feel like you’ve gotten a bit behind in draft research? This may, in part, result from your having lives outside of football, but also because you’ve been floating through the daydream ending of New England’s 17-2 championship season.

Well, we here at BSMW want to help. Starting with the first installment of our “That Guy” draft series posted after the Senior Bowl earlier this month, and now with our annual Round-By-Round Review, you can impress your friends with the SparkNotes version of the 2017 Patriots draft.

Speaking of SparkNotes, I finally figured out that Santiago was destroyed but never defeated. Only took me about 35 years.

In terms of our rankings, I’ve tried to keep the parameters simple: if a young player remains with the team, he remains a success. If he’s cut, he didn’t work out. I don’t go overboard factoring in expectations: for this, 2012 second-rounder Tavon Wilson sets an example. He didn’t start on a regular basis, but he contributed on special teams, played out his four-year contract, and went to Detroit. Not a stellar pick, but one with value. On the other hand, late-round picks who exceeded expectations (2009 seventh-rounder Julian Edelman, 2000 sixth-rounder What’s-His-Name-With-The-Five-Trophies), don’t earn extra credit, so this method seems to balance out overall, percentage-wise.

With New England faring well recently in later rounds, an interesting trend should emerge. The better the Patriots do, the less room they will have for rookies. Last year, Kamu Grugier-Hill exemplified this. The linebacker fit two of New England’s “That Guy” draft categories: Small School Defender (Eastern Illinois) and Special Teams Guy. However, because the Pats already had a core group of special teams players, Grugier-Hill didn’t make the final 53. The Eagles scooped him off the waiver wire in September and featured him as a special-teamer in 2016 (he was credited with eight tackles). So, even though I won’t deem Grugier-Hill a successful pick, it’s important to highlight how even solid selections fail to make the cut on more talented rosters.

As of this writing, Coach Bill Belichick has six picks in the 2017 draft, accounting for all seven rounds except the sixth (part of the Kyle Van Noy trade to Detroit). For a more complete rundown of various trades and mind-numbing NFL penalties, you can read Rich Hill’s projected draft picks column on PatsPulpit.com. Intriguing to see if – given the mix of young talent on the roster and unrestricted free agents possibly leaving – New England uses all six picks.

Day One (Round One) of the NFL Draft begins at 8 p.m. on April 27 (Thursday); Day Two (Rounds Two and Three) at 7 p.m. April 28, and Day Three (Rounds Four through Seven) on Saturday, April 29, at noon.

And round and round we go…

First Round 

2000: None (pick went to NYJ for BB)

2001: Richard Seymour, DL, Georgia

2002: Dan Graham, TE, Colorado

2003: Ty Warren, DL, Texas A&M

2004: Vince Wilfork, DL, Miami; Benjamin Watson, TE, Georgia

2005: Logan Mankins, OL, Fresno State

2006: Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota

2007: Brandon Meriweather, DB, Miami

2008: Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee

2009: (No Pick – traded down)

2010: Devin McCourty, DB, Rutgers

2011: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

2012: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse; Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama

2013: (No Pick – traded down)

2014: Dominique Easley, DL, Florida

2015: Malcom Brown, DL, Texas

2016: (No pick – Taken away by the NFL because science doesn’t exist)

Total Picks: 15

Successful Picks: 12 (Seymour, Graham, Warren, Wilfork, Watson, Mankins, Mayo, McCourty, Solder, Jones, Hightower, Brown)

Most Successful Pick: Seymour

Percentage: 80

Despite what I wrote above about not necessarily giving certain picks greater weight than others, I tend to hold the first round to a higher standard. Every first-round pick has started in Foxboro (though Easley had only three starts). Maroney rushed for 1,580 yards in his first two years in the league, but injuries limited him. Meriweather had 12 interceptions in four seasons with New England and remains in the league. I don’t consider either one a bust; however, in light of the red jackets many of these first-rounders have and will receive, they failed to live up to Patriots First Round status.

Jones makes the “nice” list for two reasons: he contributed at a high level through most of his contract, and his trade to Arizona returned more value to the Patriots (draft picks for starting left guard Joe Thuney and receiver Malcolm Mitchell). Call it a win-win.

Belichick has the 32nd pick this year. Curious if he’ll move it. (Is anyone making a documentary of their draft room this April? Because, considering where this franchise is right now, I would find that fascinating.)

Second Round 

2000: Adrian Klemm, OT, Hawaii

2001: Matt Light, OT, Purdue

2002: Deion Branch, WR, Louisville

2003: Eugene Wilson, DB, Illinois; Bethel Johnson, WR, Texas A&M

2004: Marquise Hill, DE, LSU

2005: (No pick)

2006: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida

2007: (No pick – traded for Wes Welker)

2008: Terrence Wheatley, DB, Colorado

2009: Patrick Chung, DB, Oregon; Ron Brace, DT, BC; Darius Butler, DB, UConn; Sebastian Vollmer, OT, Houston

2010: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona; Jermaine Cunningham, DE, Florida; Brandon Spikes, LB, Florida.

2011: Ras-I Dowling, DB, Virginia; Shane Vereen, RB, California

2012: Tavon Wilson, DB, Illinois

2013: Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss; Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall

2014: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois

2015: Jordan Richards, DB, Stanford

2016: Cyrus Jones, DB, Alabama

Total Picks: 23

Successful Picks: 13 (Light, Branch, E. Wilson, Vollmer, Gronkowski, Spikes, Vereen, T. Wilson, Collins, Garoppolo, Chung, Richards, Jones)

Most Successful Pick: Gronkowski

Percentage: 57

Sure, things didn’t end all that well with Collins, but drafting a college defensive end from a winless Southern Mississippi squad and helping him become one of the most productive linebackers in the NFL deserves credit. As with the aforementioned Tavon Wilson, the Patriots often take chances in this area of the draft on players with lesser perceived value (Richards belongs on that list, as does Vollmer) or with injury histories (Gronk, Dowling, Wheatley). This makes for an up-and-down round, especially when compared to the previous one.

Here’s a reminder for when New England takes someone in Round Two who a) ranks as a Day Three pick or b) plays a seemingly unnecessary position (Hello, Garoppolo!): the chances the Pats will find the right player are better than the chance Matthew Slater will correctly call a coin toss. And we know what happened in overtime.

Third Round 

2000: J. R. Redmond, RB, Arizona State

2001: Brock Williams, DB, Notre Dame

2002: (No pick)

2003: (No pick)

2004: Guss Scott, DB, Florida

2005: Ellis Hobbs III, CB, Iowa State; Nick Kaczur, OL, Toledo

2006: David Thomas, TE, Texas

2007: (No pick)

2008: Shawn Crable, OLB, Michigan; Kevin O’Connell, QB, San Diego State

2009: Brandon Tate, WR, North Carolina; Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida

2010: Taylor Price, WR, Ohio

2011: Stevan Ridley, RB, LSU; Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas

2012: Jake Bequette, DE, Arkansas

2013: Logan Ryan, DB, Rutgers; Duron Harmon, DB, Rutgers

2014: (No pick)

2015: Geneo Grissom, DL, Oklahoma

2016: Joe Thuney, OL, N. C. State; Jacoby Brissett, QB, N. C. State; Vincent Valentine, DL, Nebraska

Total Picks: 20

Successful Picks: 10 (Hobbs, Kaczur, Ridley, Mallett, Ryan, Harmon, Grissom, Thuney, Brissett, Valentine)

Most Successful Pick: Ryan

Percentage: 50

New England has gone six-for-six in this round since 2013, giving the Third a major boost from 29 percent to 50. That double-dip of Rutgers defensive backs set the Pats on the right path: five of those selected have started games, while the lone exception (Grissom) has made his mark as a core special teams player. Very strong work by Pats’ brass of late.

This round seems to jumpstart the hit-or-miss nature of the draft, as we delve into a class of players who tend to have certain amounts of athleticism or football intelligence, but not necessarily copious amounts of both. If you told me you thought Harmon would end up contributing more than you thought, say, Crable would have, then you either have a great eye for overall talent, or you are a pathological liar. I mean, for God’s sake, Crable jumped over a guy.

A nice update here on Crable from September, 2013. The man had an impressive rise out of a difficult childhood and, after trying out for the NFL, he returned to Ohio to work with families in need.

Okay, back to football: Let’s watch that Valentine goal-line tackle for loss in the AFC title game vs. Pittsburgh one more time, shall we?

Fourth Round 

2000: Greg Robinson-Randall, OT, Michigan State

2001: Kenyatta Jones, OT, South Florida; Jabari Holloway, TE, Notre Dame

2002: Rohan Davey, QB, LSU; Jarvis Green, DE, LSU

2003: Dan Klecko, DL, Temple; Asante Samuel, CB, Central Florida

2004: Dexter Reid, DB, North Carolina; Cedric Cobbs, RB, Arkansas

2005: James Sanders, DB, Fresno State

2006: Garrett Mills, FB, Tulsa; Stephen Gostkowski, K, Memphis

2007: Kareem Brown, DL, Miami

2008: Jonathan Wilhite, DB, Auburn

2009: Rich Ohrnberger, OL, Penn State

2010: The Tight End Who Shan’t Be Named, Florida

2011: (No Pick)

2012: (No Pick)

2013: Josh Boyce, WR, TCU

2014: Bryan Stork, OL, Florida State; James White, RB, Wisconsin; Cameron Fleming, OL, Stanford

2015: Trey Flowers, DL, Arkansas; Tré Jackson, OL, Florida State; Shaq Mason, OL, Georgia Tech

2016: Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia

Total Picks: 24

Successful Picks: 11 (Green, Samuel, Sanders, Gostkowski, Stork, White, Fleming, Flowers, Jackson, Mason, Mitchell)

Most Successful Pick: Samuel

Percentage: 46

Trying to avoid getting blinded by the Super Bowl afterglow here, I’m going back to Samuel as the best pick from this round instead of White, Flowers, or Mitchell. Gostkowski headed this list two years ago, with Stork following up last year because, and I quote myself, “Stork’s potential to play center and help the O-line mesh in the foreseeable future makes him our number one choice.” Whoops. Still, I’m keeping Stork on the successful list because he started on a Super Bowl-winning team and got replaced by someone better (perfectly acceptable for a fourth-rounder).

Like the previous round, lots of correct choices lately: six of seven fourth-round players drafted since 2014 remain with the team, including the aforementioned trio of major SB contributors (a quartet if you include starting right guard Mason). Here’s a fun snippet from last year’s column: “Flowers had a strong preseason and, if healthy (in 2016), could contribute in a pass-rushing rotation.” Could contribute, I said.

My gosh, I am adorable. In any case, White’s championship performance, Flowers’ and Mason’s strong sophomore seasons, and Mitchell’s breakthrough as a rookie pass-catcher help change the perception of this middle round. The percentage of productive picks has almost doubled from the pre-2014 rate of 24 (four of 17). Great value for the middle of the draft.

Fifth Round 

2000: Dave Stachelski, TE, Boise State; Jeff Marriott, DT, Missouri

2001: Hakim Akbar, DB, Washington

2002: (No pick)

2003: Dan Koppen, OL, Boston College

2004: P. K. Sam, WR, Florida State

2005: Ryan Claridge, OLB, UNLV

2006: Ryan O’Callaghan, OL, California

2007: Clint Oldenburg, OL, Colorado State

2008: Matthew Slater, WR, UCLA

2009: George Bussey, OL, Louisville

2010: Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan

2011: Marcus Cannon, OL, TCU; Lee Smith, TE, Marshall

2012: (No pick)

2013: (No pick)

2014: (No pick)

2015: Joe Cardona, LS, Navy

2016: (No pick)

Total Picks: 14

Successful Picks: 5 (Koppen, Slater, Mesko, Cannon, Cardona)

Most Successful Pick: Koppen

Percentage: 36

Slater, Mesko and Cardona have helped create the perception of the Fifth as the Special Teams Round. Cannon’s impressive turnaround this season at right tackle halted the trend of iffy offensive linemen (O’Callaghan, Oldenburg, Bussey). Belichick went on a streak of trading the fifth pick in recent years (including the 2016 selection for receiver Keshawn Martin). I suppose we should keep our eyes out for another special teamer or backup-offensive-lineman-to-be-developed this year.

Did anyone else like Lee Smith as much as I did? No? Well guess what: he’s still in the league!

Sixth Round 

2000: Antwan Harris, CB, Virginia; Tom Brady, QB, Michigan; David Nugent, DT, Purdue.

2001: Arther Love, TE, South Carolina State; Leonard Myers, DB, Miami

2002: (No pick)

2003: Kliff Kingsbury, QB, Texas Tech

2004: (No pick)

2005: (No pick)

2006: Jeremy Mincey, OLB, Florida; Dan Stevenson, OL, Notre Dame; LeKevin Smith, DL, Nebraska

2007: Justin Rogers, OLB, SMU; Justise Hairston, RB, Central Connecticut; Corey Hilliard, OL, Oklahoma State

2008: Bo Ruud, OLB, Nebraska

2009: Jake Ingram, LS, Hawaii; Myron Pryor, DT, Kentucky

2010: Ted Larsen, C, NC State

2011: Markell Carter, DE, Central Arkansas

2012: Nate Ebner, DB, Ohio State

2013: (No Pick)

2014: John Halapio, OL, Florida; Zach Moore, DE, Concordia

2015: Matthew Wells, LB, Mississippi State; A. J. Derby, TE, Arkansas

2016: Kamu Grugier-Hill, OLB, Eastern Illinois; Elandon Roberts, ILB, Houston; Ted Karras, OL, Illinois

Total Picks: 25

Successful Picks: 5 (Brady, Pryor, Ebner, Roberts, Karras)

Most Successful Pick: The Quarterback Not Named Kingsbury

Percentage: 20

Go ahead and watch “The Brady Six” again. I’ll wait.

See? That was fun, watching the Patriots pick a sixth-round quarterback out of Michigan, even though they had their franchise guy in Drew Bledsoe, who the following off-season signed the largest contract in NFL history. Always remember those facts the next time you hear anyone insist “the Patriots missed on Brady, too.” I’ll defer to Hal Habib of the Palm Beach Post, who on February 10 compiled a list of Boston media reactions regarding the Brady pick at the time.

Quality over quantity, I suppose. Ebner continued his work as a key special teams guy. Though I first viewed Roberts as a special teamer, the linebacker came on strong on defense this year, taking some reps for the traded Jamie Collins to net 45 tackles as a rookie.

But seriously, who cares? The Patriots could draft Donny from Dunkin‘ every year and still: Brady, man. Come on.

Seventh Round 

2000: Casey Tisdale, OLB, New Mexico; Patrick Pass, RB, Georgia

2001: Owen Pochman, K, BYU; T. J. Turner, LB, Michigan State

2002: Antwoine Womack, RB, Virginia; David Givens, WR, Notre Dame

2003: Spencer Nead, TE, BYU; Tully Banta-Cain, LB, California; Ethan Kelley, NT, Baylor

2004: Christian Morton, CB, Florida State

2005: Matt Cassel, QB, Southern California; Andy Stokes, TE, William Penn

2006: Willie Andrews, DB, Baylor

2007: Oscar Lua, LB, Southern California; Mike Elgin, OL, Iowa

2008: (No pick)

2009: Julian Edelman, WR, Kent State; Darryl Richard, DT, Georgia Tech

2010: Thomas Welch, OT, Vanderbilt; Brandon Deaderick, DL, Alabama; Kade Weston, DL, Georgia; Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State

2011: Malcolm Williams, CB, TCU

2012: Alfonso Dennard, DB, Nebraska; Jeremy Ebert, WR, Northwestern

2013: Michael Buchanan, DE, Illinois; Steve Beauharnais, LB, Rutgers

2014: Jeremy Gallon, WR, Michigan

2015: Darryl Roberts, DB, Marshall

2016: Devin Lucien, WR, Arizona State

Total Picks: 29 (Wowza.)

Successful Picks: 8 (Pass, Givens, Banta-Cain, Cassel, Edelman, Deaderick, Dennard, Lucien)

Most Successful Pick: Edelman

Percentage: 28

Will Lucien join the stable of seventh-round reliable pass-catchers that includes Pass, Givens, and Edelman? Could be fun to watch – as is his 2015 ASU highlight reel. (Some caution here as it’s NSFW; although, in his defense, he is ’bout his paper like a mothereffer scratch ‘n’ win.)

While fewer than one in three seventh-rounders makes the cut, we should point out short-time contributors who got left off the list, like pass rusher Buchanan (nine tackles in 15 games as a rookie) and cornerback Andrews (24 tackles in two seasons). With 29 seventh-round selections in 17 drafts (54 picks combined in the sixth and seventh), we see consistent attempts to add depth at the back end of Day Three. Exactly what this area of the draft is for.

UDFAs

Some of the Patriots’ notable undrafted free agents (also called rookie free agents, or RFAs) include starting center David Andrews and second-team All-Pro corner Malcolm Buter. After the draft, please keep an eye out for our annual “Who’s The FA? UDFA!” series. (Last year’s is linked here.)

Some past UDFAs who contributed: Stephen Neal, OL; Tom Ashworth, OL; Eric Alexander, LB; Randall Gay, DB; Wesley Britt, OL; Antwain Spann, CB; Kyle Eckel, RB; Santonio Thomas, DL: Mike Wright, DL; Corey Mays, LB; Pierre Woods, OLB; BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB; Vince Redd, OLB, Tyson Devree, TE; Gary Guyton, LB; Brian Hoyer, QB; Ray Ventrone, DB; Chris Harper, WR; Josh Kline, OL.

Some UDFAs on the roster now: Butler, CB, West Alabama; Andrews, OL, Georgia; Ryan Allen, P, Louisiana Tech; Brandon Bolden, RB, Ole Miss; Brandon King, DB, Auburn; D. J. Foster, RB, Arizona State; Jonathan Jones, CB, Auburn; Woodrow Hamilton, DL, Ole Miss.

Maybe I should end 2017’s column with the same line I used to wrap up last year’s: “With a few solid picks, maybe a surprise UDFA or two, and good health, the 2016 Patriots could continue their impressive run.”

I mean … sure. Let’s keep it vague: With a strong rookie class, the wise coaching of Bill Belichick, the insatiable desire of Tom Brady, and the relentless pursuit of excellence by an entire organization, 2017 could be a year of specialness for Foxboro folks.

Why not?

Chris Warner watched his alma mater’s hoops team lose by 20 this weekend, yet in light of the Super Bowl he never really thought they were out of it. You can reach him via email at chris.warner@patriotsdaily.com or through Twitter @cwarn89.